China's coal consumption is forecast to grow moderately in 2025, with a slight increase over 2024 levels driven by higher electricity demand and stabilization in key industrial sectors, according to the China National Coal Association (CNCA).
Electricity generation from coal-fired plants is expected to rise 4.5 percent in 2025, adding around 290 billion kilowatt-hours, as the country ramps up efforts to expand effective investment and stabilize the real estate market through policy measures, said Zhang Hong, deputy secretary-general of the CNCA.
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Both metallurgy and building material industries are expected to stabilize and recover, with national production of key coal-consuming products such as crude steel and cement projected to maintain steady production levels, he said.
According to the association, while coal output is expected to increase modestly, production growth will be concentrated in the coal-rich regions of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang Uygur autonomous regions.
Xinjiang, in particular, is set to be the key contributor to the rise of coal production. The overall coal market is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand outlook throughout 2025, though seasonal fluctuations between surplus and tight conditions will persist, he said.
The association predicts that in 2025, the coal market will largely remain balanced, with supply and demand conditions fluctuating between surplus and tight periods due to seasonal variations.
Industry experts believe the expected increase in coal production is in line with the government's emphasis on ensuring energy security, particularly amid rising concerns over supply disruptions and growing demand.
Coal will continue to play a key role in ensuring domestic energy supply as the Chinese economy seeks to stabilize and recover, said Lin Boqiang, head of the China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy at Xiamen University.
The government's focus on ensuring coal supply stability has been reinforced by recent legal changes, including China's first energy law, which is to fully take effect on Jan 1 and encourages long-term coal contracts to bolster market resilience. These contracts are seen as crucial for supporting high-quality development while ensuring energy security in China's evolving energy landscape.
China continues to prioritize stable coal production and supply throughout 2024, with the proportion of intelligent coal capacity rising to over 50 percent of total capacity, after transforming and upgrading 180 million kilowatts of coal-fired power units and eliminating more than 8 million kW of outdated capacity, according to the National Energy Administration.
More than 95 percent of coal-fired power units across the country have now met ultra-low emission standards.
Many domestic coal companies are making deeper forays into the integration of clean coal power and carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies to offset carbon emissions and realize zero-carbon production.
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According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative growth rate of national coal-fired power generation dropped from 9.7 percent at the beginning of the year to 0.5 percent by July. Compared to 2023, the annual coal consumption for coal-fired power generation is expected to decrease by approximately 100 million metric tons year-on-year, it said.
From the perspective of major coal-consuming sectors, the metallurgy and building material industries, which account for nearly a quarter of the country's total coal consumption, have seen a continued decline in production, leading to a sustained reduction in coal consumption, said the association.
According to China Petroleum and Chemical Corp, China's total coal consumption is approaching a peak plateau. In 2024, coal consumption is expected to rise to 4.85 billion tons, accounting for 54 percent of total energy consumption.
