On Nov 25, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, chairman of the China-Britain Business Council (CBBC) and senior adviser to HSBC Holdings PLC, will visit the University of Hong Kong. As the guest of the Centre on Contemporary China and the World, he will speak on the topic “Beyond the Golden Era: The Outlook for UK-China Relations Under a Labour Government and the Impact of Elections in the US”. It promises to be an eye-opener, particularly for anybody wanting to know where the United Kingdom’s interests really lie.
Cowper-Coles spent over 30 years in the British diplomatic service, holding several ambassadorships. He headed the Foreign Office’s Hong Kong desk from 1994 to 1997 and was intimately involved in the handover arrangements. He clashed with the then-governor, Chris Patten, over, for example, the Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal (Patten wanted to break off negotiations with China if he could not get his way over its composition, although he was dissuaded).
Moreover, Cowper-Coles foresaw Patten and his henchmen “becoming leaders of the opposition to China and to Chinese rule”. Indeed, Patten now spends his days maligning China, and even became a patron of Hong Kong Watch, the anti-China propaganda outfit (whose other patrons include ideologues like Lord (David) Alton and Baroness (Helena) Kennedy).
However, while Patten seeks to poison Anglo-Chinese relations, Cowper-Coles does the opposite. For example, in June 2023, at a supposedly closed-door meeting (whose discussions were leaked), he said the UK’s China policy was “weak”, and should change course. Instead of bowing to the United States, Britain needed to look after its own interests, which was incontrovertible. He instanced how Boris Johnson’s government, in response to American pressure, banned Huawei from participating in its high-speed 5G network in 2020, notwithstanding the harm to the country’s technological future.
Cowper-Coles can provide much food for thought on the issues of the day. Having pointed the way for the UK’s China policy for many years, his visits to Hong Kong are always welcome
As expected, Patten and his cronies were furious at his remarks, with Alton saying they raised “further concerns over HSBC’s priorities and its cozy relationship with the brutal CCP regime”.
In May 2023, Cowper-Coles told CGTN that Patten knew “nothing” about China, and that the Western politicians who were trying to “demonize” the country were “naive”. He explained that “some of the nonsense we hear talked about in the US Congress, in the US media, and in parts of the Parliament in London about China these days just shows how ignorant people are and how prejudiced”. He added that they should “come to China and see for themselves the realities”, and he has put his money where his mouth is.
In May 2024, for example, Cowper-Coles led a CBBC delegation to China, and was impressed by what he saw. He praised China’s efforts to promote “high-quality development”. He said the UK should be a part of its technological progress in areas like life sciences, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence. The two countries had to work together and “should and must have” a shared future.
When Cowper-Coles met the premier, Li Qiang, he told him, “A rapidly improving economic and commercial relationship is not just about the profits of our firms, but, even more important, it is about the health, wealth and happiness of the Chinese and British peoples.” Although Patten and his acolytes cannot get their heads around this, the UK’s new Labour government, led by Sir Keir Starmer, has no such difficulty. It wants a new deal with China, and the reasons are not hard to find.
Shortly after Starmer became prime minister, Make UK, the industry trade body that focuses on creating a supportive environment for British manufacturers, rang the alarm bells. It published an analysis that compared the official data of each country for 2022, and it revealed that the UK had dropped out of the top 10 manufacturing nations for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. It had become the 12th biggest manufacturer (as compared to fifth in 2000) with an output of $259 billion a year, behind the likes of Mexico ($316 billion), Russia ($287 billion), Italy ($283 billion), and France ($265 billion).
By contrast, China topped the rankings, with an output of $5.06 trillion, almost a third of global production, with the US in second place, at $2.7 trillion.
Make UK’s chief executive, Stephen Phipson, described the data as “a serious and seismic wake-up call”, which called into question the UK’s “status as a major manufacturing player”. While previous British governments had been “asleep at the wheel”, other countries had created “a range of powerful industrial strategies to boost domestic and foreign direct investment”.
The official figures confirmed Phipson’s message. Whereas manufacturing accounted for 17 percent of the British economy in 1990, it accounted for only 9.4 percent by 2024.
Starmer has said he hopes to turn the UK into the fastest-growing economy in the Group of Seven, and if he is serious about this, he must increase its underlying productivity. If manufacturing is to be revived, new investment is required in Britain’s future technologies, including electric cars, batteries and wind turbines, and China can assist.
Indeed, the new foreign secretary, David Lammy, acknowledged that the UK must “recognize China’s importance to the British economy”. China is now Britain’s fourth-largest trading partner, and it can help Britain in many ways. As Lammy knew, Beijing has, for example, a near-monopoly of large-scale lithium exports, necessary for electric-car batteries. It also controls the global production of many rare earth elements required for green energy technologies, and the UK needs to have access.
In October, when Lammy visited China for talks with the foreign minister, Wang Yi, and the vice-premier, Ding Xuexiang, they focused on areas of cooperation. These included finance, technology, healthcare, education and climate change. In Shanghai, where two-thirds of the UK’s mainland-based companies operate, he saw for himself what is achievable when British entrepreneurs and investors engage positively with Chinese cities and business. He pointed out that British companies wanted “stability and clarity” in trade with China.
Having heard what Lammy had to say, Wang Yi welcomed the Labour government’s plan to develop “pragmatic” relations. He said bilateral ties “now stand at a new starting point”, adding that the two countries “should become partners in responding to global challenges”. Therefore, in the UK’s national interest, Starmer must ensure that the momentum generated by Lammy’s visit is maintained.
However, it would be a mistake to assume that Cold War mentalities are declining in the UK. Its domestic intelligence service (MI5), for example, eager to justify its budget (reportedly 3.71 billion pounds ($4.82 billion) in 2021-22), periodically publicizes tales of Chinese threats to Britain’s computer systems and way of life. Although this titillates the Pattens of this world, its claims must be kept in perspective. As Lammy acknowledged last month, 95 percent of the trade between the UK and China is unrelated to national security.
In 2023, bilateral trade stood at about $98 billion, and over 500 Chinese enterprises were established in the UK. However, while Lammy was in Beijing, the Office for National Statistics reported that in the year ending in March, the total exports of British goods and services to China declined by 24 percent over the previous year. This suggested that the Beijing-hostile policies of Starmer’s three predecessors — Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson — had taken their toll, and he must have been stunned.
Apart from anything else, the decline threatens the manufacturing jobs in many of the parliamentary constituencies his Labour Party currently holds. He must be desperate to reverse the trend.
As Cowper-Coles has often explained, China is now the world’s economic powerhouse, and the UK’s prosperity is inevitably linked to its growth. The Chinese government is pulling out all the stops to stimulate its economy and plans to raise another $850 billion through new bond issues to fund more fiscal stimuli. These measures will undoubtedly bear fruit, and it was little wonder that Lammy said it was important for British officials to “keep coming back”.
Although Cowper-Coles was often a voice in the wilderness, ridiculed by Patten, Alton and their ilk, his message has now been heard. Starmer is a pragmatist who knows the importance of enlightened self-interest in a world that owes Britain no favors. He appreciates just how competitive the global manufacturing market has become and wants to reset ties with Beijing. If he plays his hand properly, there is no reason why the UK should not benefit enormously from China’s cultural, financial, trading and other opportunities, and Cowper-Coles will undoubtedly elaborate on this during his visit.
Moreover, with the arrival of a new president in the White House on Jan 20, Cowper-Coles will also have some fascinating perspectives about how US-China relations will evolve. He served as the UK’s ambassador to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Afghanistan, and was also first secretary at the UK embassy in Washington, DC, and principal private secretary to the former foreign secretary, Robin Cook. He has witnessed great power politics from the inside, and is as well-placed as anybody to divine the shape of things to come.
Although Starmer was quick to congratulate Donald Trump upon his “historic victory”, Trump will not have been fooled.
He will recall that when Starmer accused the Conservative Party last year of falling far from its “Churchillian” values, he threw in the supposed insult that it was behaving “more and more like Donald Trump”.
He will also remember that Starmer’s deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, gloated over his replacement by Joe Biden in 2021, saying, “I am so happy to see the back of Donald Trump.”
He will never forget that Lammy referred to him in 2017 as “a woman-hating, pro-Nazi sympathizing sociopath” and a “dangerous clown”, and vowed to oppose his presidential visit to the UK. Lammy has since refused to apologize, saying only, “Trump has the thickest of skins.”
However, his skin cannot be that thick, and his campaign filed a Federal Election Commission complaint against Starmer’s Labour Party last month, accusing it of “blatant foreign interference” in support of Trump’s opponent, Vice-President Kamala Harris. This arose after the Labour Party’s head of operations, Sofia Patel, recruited Labour activists to travel to the US to campaign for Harris, even promising them housing.
Therefore, the Labour Party’s opposition to Trump over many years has been not only political but also personal, and it can expect few favors from him now.
However much the UK wants a post-Brexit trade deal with the US, it remains as elusive as ever. If Trump was unwilling to give one to his kindred spirit, Boris Johnson, in 2020, how much less likely would he be to provide one now for Starmer, Rayner and Lammy?
In these circumstances, Cowper-Coles may well conclude that the case for the UK forging closer ties with China is now more compelling than ever.
As a Sinologue with a firm grasp of reality, Cowper-Coles can provide much food for thought on the issues of the day. Having pointed the way for the UK’s China policy for many years, his visits to Hong Kong are always welcome. If he has more insights to share this time, everybody will be in for a treat.
The author is a senior counsel and law professor, and was previously the director of public prosecutions of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
