On Nov 5, the United States held presidential and congressional elections. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump made a dramatic comeback by attaining an overwhelming victory.
Somewhat unexpectedly, Republicans control the Senate and (most likely) the House of Representatives. Surprisingly, the Republican Party also won a majority of the popular vote. With the demise of its establishment figures, today’s Republican Party has become a political tool firmly controlled by Trump. In the last several years, many politicians loyal to Trump have inserted themselves into the federal, state and local governments and Congress. Thanks to Trump’s appointments in his first term, right-wing judges currently dominate the US Supreme Court. Trump can be described as an unprecedently powerful president in US history.
With so much power in Trump’s hands, the “separation of powers between the executive, the legislature and the judiciary” and “checks and balances between the three branches of the political system” now exist in name only. After the anticipated great purge of the federal government and the entry of thousands of Trump loyalists into the federal government, there will no longer be roadblocks to the whims and caprices of Trump and his underlings in the “deep state”. This peculiar political ecology has never appeared in US history, which means that Trump can implement his political ideas and policies without constraints.
... American politics has entered a new era and will have powerful corrosive effects on American democracy, which will have far-reaching ramifications for US foreign policy.
Trump’s reelection as US president will engender a complete reshaping of US domestic politics and the international political and economic landscape. Trump won more than half of the Electoral College vote and more than half of the popular vote, suggesting that the political stance he has advocated for a long time has become the mainstream political stance in the US. Trump’s political stance, in the eyes of many American scholars, is a “New Right” political thought, at the core of which is American white nationalism and populism. This illiberal political thought opposes the “liberalism” that has long dominated US politics, especially its tenets of racial equality, gender equality, freedom of sexual choices, religious neutrality, openness to immigration, support for abortion, nonchalance toward de-industrialization and the “big government” doctrine.
At the international level, it opposes globalization, multilateralism, free trade, liberal internationalism or the rules-based international order, and the US as the “world policeman” and exporter of nation-building and democracy. Instead, it jealously upholds US sovereignty and independence, promotes isolationism, calls for minimizing commitments and responsibilities to other countries, especially security guarantees, prioritizing US interests, minimizing international entanglements and alliances, and relying mainly on its own strength to maintain US global hegemony and international primacy.
This kind of “New Right” thought in the US has existed since the founding of the US and is tremendously influential in the American South. Still, it has never become the mainstream thought in the US. Trump’s election as president in 2016 signaled that this set of ideas had become quite powerful over the years, but it still cannot be said to have become mainstream thought back then.
Trump and his supporters’ indisputable success in the 2024 presidential and congressional elections show that “New Right” ideas have become mainstream for the first time in American history. It also reflects that American politics has entered a new era and will have powerful corrosive effects on American democracy, which will have far-reaching ramifications for US foreign policy. This far-reaching blow will also seriously undermine the international appeal of American democracy and even the US’ soft power.
Trump’s return to power in the US will tremendously or even irrevocably reshape the international political and economic landscape, mainly in the following aspects.
First, the US will return to the track of isolationism. In fact, isolationism was the dominant ideology for most of US history and was only replaced by liberal internationalism after World War II. American political scientist Charles A Kupchan, in his book Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself From the World (2020), defined “isolationism” as a grand strategy to disengage with foreign powers and avoid enduring strategic commitments beyond the North American homeland.
Trump and the “New Right’s isolationism”, however, does not mean that the US will no longer get involved in international affairs, but that it will choose how and when to participate in global or foreign affairs by its interests. Specifically, “Trumpian isolationism” includes reducing its security commitments to international organizations or other countries, avoiding participating in foreign wars, and minimizing conflicts or entanglements with other countries. It will refrain from signing alliances or agreements with foreign governments, not allow global organizations to weaken or deprive the US of its “sovereignty” and autonomy, oppose multilateralism, and not allow other countries to treat the US “unfairly” (as defined by the US).
In the past, Trump has adopted a disdainful and repulsive attitude toward international institutions such as the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the World Health Organization (WHO). I believe his stance on those institutions will continue in the future. This means that the “liberal international order” or “rules-based international order” so meticulously devised by the US after World War II will be abandoned or disrupted by the US.
It is anticipated that many hawkish anti-China politicians loyal to Trump will join Trump’s leadership team during his second term, so it is conceivable that the US’ suppression of China will escalate. Another trade war and technology blockade will ensue immediately after Trump assumes office
Second, the “New Right” and “Trumpian isolationism” still demand the maintenance of the US’ global hegemony. The slogan or battle cry “Make America great again” will be meaningless if the US descends into No 2 worldwide. Trump and the US government believe that China has the most power to displace or replace the US’ global hegemony. The US began to define China as a “strategic competitor” soon after Trump came to power in January 2017. Trump advocates doing everything possible to contain and combat China’s rise, especially in trade and technology.
The US hopes to reduce its security commitments in other places to concentrate resources, especially military resources, to contain China. It is anticipated that many hawkish anti-China politicians loyal to Trump will join Trump’s leadership team during his second term, so it is conceivable that the US’ suppression of China will escalate. Another trade war and technology blockade will ensue immediately after Trump assumes office. Trump is likely to vigorously coerce US allies and partners to join forces with the US to contain and harass China in disregard of their interests or will.
Although the US will not go to war with China over the Taiwan question, since the US cannot defeat China and a kinetic US-China war will decisively terminate US global hegemony, Washington is likely to use Taiwan as a “chess piece” and a bargaining chip in dealing with Beijing.
Third, Trump will seek to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict as soon as possible to cut losses in an unwinnable war and achieve the goal of a “truce” or armistice by forcing Ukraine to give up on regaining its lost land by threatening to cut off military aid. Trump is also likely to use this to improve relations with Russia and weaken cooperation between Russia and China, thereby trying to achieve the purpose of “enlisting” Russia to join forces to contain and isolate China. Trump’s move will chill his European and Asian allies and cause them to lose confidence in the US’ “security guarantees”, but he will not hesitate to do so if this is instrumental in blocking China’s rise.
Fourth, on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Trump’s stance of overwhelmingly in favor of Israel is well known. He does not support the two-state solution as the means to bring about ultimate peace in the Middle East. However, when Israel is isolated internationally because of its genocide and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, will Trump risk the wrath of the Arab and Islamic world and support Israel without hesitation, including supporting an Israeli war with Iran or getting the US again immersed in a Middle East war? It is still unknown, so we cannot rule out the possibility that Trump will take action to coax or “compel” Israel to end its conflicts with its neighbors in a “face-saving fashion” and prevent the US from falling into a war in the Middle East. After all, Trump has previously shown willingness to risk allowing the Taliban to regain power by withdrawing US forces from Afghanistan.
Fifth, in the economic field, Trump is a firm anti-globalization and protectionist politician. After he takes office, he will inevitably impose or increase tariffs on countries with trade surpluses with the US, and the main target will be China. The US will not participate in new free trade agreements, will impose tariffs ferociously, will modify existing free trade agreements in a direction that is beneficial to the US, will not abide by the rules of the WTO, will obstruct the regular operation of the WTO, will withdraw once again from the Paris Agreement on climate change and WHO, will engage in protectionism and unilateralism, will no longer uphold free trade, will implement import and export controls, will cancel the “most-favored-nation treatment” of some countries, will promote the purchase of American goods domestically, will vigorously subsidize domestic enterprises, will weaponize the dollar arbitrarily, will force American and other foreign enterprises to invest in the US, will pursue “reindustrialization”, will not help many of the world’s poorest countries improve through trade with the US, and will impose technology embargoes on some countries, so on and so forth.
As the US increasingly pursues the path of “Trumpian isolationism”, it cannot be ruled out that more and more Western countries will seek to improve relations with China for their own interests and security, allowing China to gain a rare opportunity to enhance its international status and influence, and win more friends and partners
Although these policies are harmful to others and themselves, they can win the favor of their white-worker supporters and are politically in line with the ideas and beliefs of the “New Right”. As Michael L Beeman, a former assistant US trade representative, said in his book Walking Out: America’s New Trade Policy in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond (2024), the US’ walkout on free trade in recent years “is an attempt at a fundamental shift in policy aimed at forcing a reset of many of America’s past trade priorities and choices, as well as many of the global trade norms that America itself had a dominant hand in shaping over the past 75 years”. Trump’s second term will singlehandedly destroy the “international free trade” system built by the US, which is no longer seen as in line with US interests.
Suppose the national political, economic and trade order established by the US after World War II is seriously undermined by Trump and the “New Right” forces. In that case, the US and all other countries will inevitably suffer significant losses. More importantly, the internal consistencies and contradictions of “Trumpian isolationism” will doom Trump’s project at the end of the day. In all likelihood, Trump’s misadventures will help speed up the decisions, efforts and work of countries worldwide to unite and rebuild a new international order. China can play an essential role in this regard. After all, the Belt and Road Initiative and the BRICS cooperation mechanism have made good progress as role models. As the US increasingly pursues the path of “Trumpian isolationism”, it cannot be ruled out that more and more Western countries will seek to improve relations with China for their own interests and security, allowing China to gain a rare opportunity to enhance its international status and influence, and win more friends and partners.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
