At the invitation of President Xi Jinping, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, President Kais Saied of Tunisia, and President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of the United Arab Emirates paid a state visit to China from May 28 to June 1 and attended the opening ceremony of the 10th Ministerial Conference of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum. 

The joint visits of the Arab heads of state to Beijing testify to the importance of Arab countries’ attachment to China. Also, they show that China-Arab relations have entered a new stage of strategic partnership. Three critical documents stemming from the conference — namely, the “Beijing Declaration”, the “China-Arab States Cooperation Forum 2024-2026 Execution Plan”, and the “Joint Statement between China and Arab Countries on Palestine” — were released. China and the Arab countries will strengthen cooperation in aerospace, education, health, and other fields. On the Palestine problem, China and the Arab countries express deep concerns over the humanitarian crisis produced by the endurance of the conflict in Gaza. They express a steadfast attitude and essential consensus on the need to make joint efforts to promote a cease-fire and end the war in Gaza, ensure humanitarian aid, oppose the forced removal of the Palestinian people, support Palestine becoming a full member of the United Nations, and promote an early resolution of the Palestine problem based on the “two-state solution”.

From the perspective of the current international situation, the rapid enhancement of China-Arab relations shows starkly the historical trend that the influence of China in the Middle East is on the rise, whereas that of the United States is in decline. This has significant ramifications and repercussions worldwide.

Robert D Blackwill and Richard Fontaine assert in their new book, Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power (2024), that although, contrary to public perception, the strategic, military and economic resources invested by the US in the Middle East have not decreased, Middle Eastern countries however persist in believing that after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the collapse of Russia’s influence in the Middle East, the strategic importance of the region to the US has dropped continuously and irreversibly. The US is perceived to be withdrawing from the Middle East, focusing increasingly on the Indo-Pacific region to contain China. In their words, “It soon became an article of faith among key Middle East governments that the US would not in the future act as the guarantor of regional stability, and that they would be forced to preserve security on their own.” Furthermore, “US prestige, influence, and credibility steadily declined across the Middle East over the 2010s.” The two strategic scholars believe that a series of actions by the US in the Middle East since the 2010s caused this perception of Middle Eastern countries. These actions include the betrayal of then-Egyptian president Mubarak in 2011, the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, the inconsistent reaction toward the use of chemical weapons by Syria, the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran in 2015 (delaying but not ending Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons), the US diminishing dependence on Middle East oil, the US putting pressure on Middle Eastern countries over human rights, and the betrayal of Washington’s Kurdish allies in Syria who had fought alongside US troops against ISIS.

At the same time, the US made repeated mistakes in its policies toward the Middle East over the past few decades, which have cost the US heavily and caused many Americans to feel somewhat “disillusioned” and “dispirited” about Middle East affairs. Steven Simon, who served as senior director for Middle East and North Africa affairs at the US National Security Council from 2011 to 2012, asserted that the US’ failure in the Middle East stems from the gap between its strategic intentions on the one hand and the harsh reality of the Middle East and the limited capability of the US on the other. In his book Grand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East (2023), Simon observed, “If there is a consistent theme in this book, it is of the superimposition of grand ideas on antithetical Middle Eastern realities and American capacities.” “Cycles of foreign engagement and retrenchment have churned since the earliest years of the American republic. But none has been so prolonged and dramatic as that between the fall of the Shah of Iran during the Carter presidency and the collapse of the US position, or illusions about it, in the Middle East during Barack Obama’s administration: the open contempt of the Gulf States and Israel; the failure of vast efforts to arm and train Syrian rebels; the ‘shit show,’ as Obama described it, of intervention in Libya; the stalled attempts to foster democratic transitions during the Arab spring; the rise of the Islamic State; the inability to forge a durable constituency for a nuclear deal with Iran; and a bitter end to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.”

Since the Suez Crisis in 1956, the US has replaced Britain and France as the hegemon in the Middle East and the guardian of Western interests there. To prevent the Soviet Union from entering the Middle East and ensure the West’s control of Middle East oil, the US continued to support various agents in the Middle East. It adopted the “divide and conquer” strategies and the “pulling one faction and fighting another” tactics among Middle Eastern countries. Israel is a “permanent” agent overseeing and safeguarding US interests, but Iran, Iraq, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia have all been guardians of US interests at one time or another. After the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the downfall of the shah in 1979, Iran became the sworn enemy of the US, severely and forever frustrating the US’ grand Middle East strategy. The loss of Iran has proved to be of fatal significance in the failure of US policy in the Middle East.

In recent years, to gradually retrench and withdraw from the Middle East, the US has tried arduously to win over some Arab countries such as Bahrain, Qatar and Morocco to build a coalition between Israel and the Arab countries to contain Iran through various Abraham Accords. The most fabulous prize and ultimate goal of the US is to include Saudi Arabia in this coalition by providing it with exceptional security guarantees, weapons sales and the transfer of nuclear technology. However, the US strategy of maintaining peace in the Middle East while minimizing US involvement has been completely upended by the Israel-Hamas conflict. The US connivance and assistance to Israel’s genocide of Palestinians in Gaza not only made the Palestinian issue reemerge as a paramount international issue but also fomented the unity of Arab countries, the improvement of relations between Arab countries and Iran, and the Islamic world’s common hatred of the US and Israel. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has wiped out the moral authority of the US worldwide. It has caused the US’ influence in the Middle East to tumble precipitously and irreversibly.

Dalia Dassa Kaye of UCLA and Sanam Vakil of Chatham House wrote in Foreign Affairs in early 2024, “As US engagement in the region (Middle East) declined in the years leading up to October 7, (2023), major regional powers steadily increased their efforts to shape and set security arrangements. Indeed, beginning in 2019, governments across the region began to mend previously fraught relations. This unusual regional reset was driven by economic priorities — overcoming frictions that had previously disrupted or held back trade and growth — but also by the perception that Washington’s interest in managing Middle East conflicts was waning.” “Rather than derailing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Gaza war seems to have strengthened them.” “Regional governments are increasingly aware that they cannot rely on the United States alone to provide a viable peace process.” “Even as it has thrust the Palestinian issue back to the forefront of the international agenda, the war in Gaza has underscored the important new dynamics in play across the Middle East. On the one hand, the US appears to have less influence. But at the same time, regional powers, including those previously at odds, are taking the initiative, involving themselves in mediation, and coordinating their policy responses.”

China’s influence in the Middle East has been relatively limited for a long time and far behind that of the US. However, the situation has changed dramatically recently because of the overall rise of China and the emergence of regional powers in the Middle East. Significant regional countries like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt are increasingly pursuing “strategic independence” and refuse to do the bidding of the US. China has become the largest buyer of Middle East oil. Sino-Arab economic and trade relations have become increasingly close. Middle Eastern countries’ growing distrust in the US’ security guarantees and the increasingly tense relations between Arab countries and the US after the Gaza war have injected a powerful impetus into Sino-Arab relations. Furthermore, more and more Arab countries are prepared to strengthen cooperation with China on security affairs, including purchasing arms from China and conducting joint military exercises with China.

In the economic field, in recent years, oil-producing countries in the Middle East have also stepped up investments in China in addition to increasing oil trade with China. According to a February op-ed piece by Niu Xinchun, executive director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, China used to be primarily an investor in the Middle East, with the US traditionally serving as the main investment destination for Arab countries. However, the situation has changed in the past few years, with China emerging as an increasingly attractive investment destination for these nations. Their investments in China have reached a level on par with those in the Middle East. “The investments are mainly focused on the burgeoning sectors of electric vehicles, new energy, the internet, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, smart infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, and high-end equipment manufacturing.” “The strategic pivot of Arab countries’ investments is driven by their desire to free themselves from oil dependence, wean themselves off their overdependence on the US, and embrace emerging countries and markets.”

By 2020, China had become the Arab countries’ top trading partner. Saudi Arabia had already participated in the Belt and Road cooperation and had joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a dialogue partner in 2023. Iran joined the SCO that year. Türkiye also participates in the SCO and the Belt and Road cooperation.

In the political field, last year, China played a crucial role in restoring diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and facilitating talks in Beijing between the two hostile major Palestinian political factions (Fatah and Hamas). Arab countries are expecting or urging China to play an essential role in ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state. It is foreseeable that in the future, when Middle Eastern countries want to build a regional security framework that protects their common security without relying too much on the US, China will inevitably be called upon to play an indispensable role.

As the influence of China rises and the US declines in the Middle East, the political landscape in the region and even internationally will also undergo a gargantuan transformation. The most significant outcome is not the declining global hegemony of the US but the emergence of Eurasia as the most prominent and influential political and economic force in the world. The parts of Eurasia will be further integrated politically, economically and financially through extensive infrastructure building, pioneered mainly by China. For China, the continuous strengthening of relations between China and the Middle East will further enhance the depth and intensity of the Belt and Road cooperation, strengthen the security and stability of China’s western regions, position China as an indispensable international peacemaker, increase China’s political clout and status worldwide, and further thwart the US’ attempt to recruit countries adjacent to China to encircle and isolate China. The rising influence of China in the Middle East is also significant in safeguarding China’s national security, particularly energy security, and promoting China’s economic development.

The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.