Love him or loathe him, Nigel Farage has proved to be one of the most influential British politicians of the 21st century.

Now the leader of Reform UK, Farage transformed British politics. Whenever he has raised his banner, people have flocked to it. A charismatic straight talker with a common touch, he is trusted by ordinary voters in a way that other politicians can only envy. Although anathema to the establishment, his views have struck chords everywhere.   

In 2014, Farage, then the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leader, unleashed a political earthquake across British politics. In the European Parliament elections, he led the UKIP to an extraordinary victory. This was the first time in modern history that neither the Conservative nor Labour parties had won a British national election.

It prompted the then-prime minister, David Cameron, to hold a referendum on British membership of the European Union (EU) in 2016, and he led the campaign to remain in the EU. However, the electorate wanted their sovereignty back and embraced Farage’s vision of an independent UK and “Global Britain”.

When reminiscing in 2019, Cameron said his “greatest regret” was that those who advocated staying in the EU lost the vote, but some of his followers initially refused to give up.

Even after the British people had voted to leave, the EU’s allies resorted to foot-dragging in Parliament, and tried to overturn their democratically expressed will. They sought a second referendum, a familiar EU tactic, hoping it would reverse the earlier vote. However, they reckoned without Farage.

In the European Parliament elections of 2019, he once again returned to the fray. This time he led the newly formed Brexit Party and he was again triumphant. Whereas the Brexit Party won 29 seats, the Labour Party secured 10, while the Conservatives were left with a mere four (the minority Liberal Democrats obtained 16).

Not surprisingly, Farage made many enemies along the way. The establishment politicians resented his success, while the Europhiles never forgave him for burying their dreams of a united Europe. However, this was all water off the duck’s back, and the Conservative Party now faces Farage’s wrath. He is disgusted not only by its incompetence and immorality, but also by its failure to deliver on Brexit.

The Brexit Party has now morphed into Reform UK, which advocates traditional British values, identity and culture and Brexit’s fulfillment, and it has put the fear of God into the Conservative Party. Although everybody accepts the Labour Party will be the big winner in the general election on July 4, nobody expected that Reform UK would pose a serious threat to the Conservatives as runners-up. However, a recent YouGov survey gave Reform UK 19 percent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 18 percent (with the Labour Party comfortably ahead on 37 percent).

The Conservatives, therefore, are desperate to halt Farage’s momentum, and they have made common cause with the other political parties. On June 21, when he discussed the Ukraine conflict, he dared to say what everybody knew, but nobody was prepared to say. He pointed out that Russia’s invasion was “provoked” by the eastward expansion of the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which Russia regards as an existential threat. Their expansion provided Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, with a “reason” to tell his people, “They’re coming for us again,” a view widely held by objective observers in the West, including the United States. 

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, NATO started moving its borders toward Russia. It not only incorporated the former Warsaw Pact countries but also the Baltic states on its immediate flank. So that nobody would be in any doubt about its ambitions, it even promised membership to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008, knowing this would fan Russia’s security fears and inflame tensions. 

However, historical truths notwithstanding, the main political parties reacted with fury to Farage’s comments, which also advocated peace talks with Russia to resolve the conflict and end Ukraine’s suffering. This was unsurprising, as they are all beholden to the US and would not dream of challenging NATO’s agenda, however bellicose. A typical reaction came from the home secretary, James Cleverly, who accused Farage of “echoing Putin’s vile justification for the brutal invasion of Ukraine”.

Cleverly, of course, will never be forgotten for his vile attacks on Hong Kong during his unlamented stint as foreign secretary (2022-23). He and his ilk can never forgive Farage for repeatedly rubbing their faces in the dirt, and for daring to impugn NATO’s aggressive strategy. As early as 2014, Farage told the European Parliament to “stop playing games with Putin”, which infuriated those wanting to recruit Ukraine into NATO, hoping for another Cold War with Russia.  

Although Ukraine is not a member of the EU or NATO, the West has behaved as if it were. It has shamelessly used Kyiv’s border dispute with Russia as a pretext for waging a proxy war against Moscow. After initially supplying defensive equipment to Kyiv, it has decided to up the ante. On May 3, for example, David Cameron, now foreign secretary, promised Ukraine 3 billion pounds ($3.8 billion) of annual military aid, and even added that he had no objection to its weapons being used inside Russia. Not only was this irresponsible, given it invited military retaliation against the UK, it was also an unforgivable waste of public money.

As the UK’s national debt was 2.6 trillion pounds (or 98 percent of GDP) at the end of 2023-24, the equivalent of around 37,900 pounds per person in the UK, it can ill-afford to waste its money on financing other people’s conflicts. At a time when over 300,000 people are said to be homeless on any given night in Britain, and the national health system is starved of cash, along with the education system and the criminal justice system, any spare cash should be spent at home. However much this may upset the US and NATO, the needs of the British people can no longer be ignored. This is precisely why Reform UK is now eclipsing the Conservatives in the opinion polls.

Terrified at the prospect of oblivion, the Conservatives even mobilized their former leader, Boris Johnson. He described Farage’s comments as “nauseating ahistorical drivel” and “Kremlin propaganda”, which was a bit rich given his previous stance.

During the 2016 Brexit campaign, Johnson dismissed the EU as “a force for instability”. He condemned its “pretensions to run a foreign policy and defense policy”, pointing out they “have caused real trouble” in Ukraine. Although referring to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, he recognized the futility of provoking Russia, and he was not alone.

The current CIA director, William Burns, warned in the 1990s that NATO expansion was “premature at best, and needlessly provocative at worst”. In 2008 he went further, warning that NATO membership for Ukraine would violate Moscow’s “red lines” and could potentially lead to “civil war”. Although obvious, NATO pretends not to understand it, and it keeps telling Kyiv that the only question is “when” it joins the bloc, not “if”, which is unsurprising.

NATO has no interest in a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict, and relishes the prospect of a “forever war”. This was why it brushed aside China’s peace proposals in 2023, and disregarded the six-point peace plan put forward by China and Brazil last month. Although over 90 countries attended the recent summit for peace for Ukraine in Switzerland, Russia was not invited, reducing it to little more than a glorified talkfest. There was no chance of a breakthrough, and the West only wanted to humiliate Russia. This will not happen, and as the conflict drags on, it is Ukraine that will pay the price for NATO’s intransigence.     

Although Farage understands the situation, as do many of his US counterparts, he faces an uphill struggle. If, as expected, he is elected as a member of Parliament for the Clacton constituency, he will not have many party members with him in Parliament. However, there is every chance there will be a major realignment of the Right. The handful of Conservatives who survive the rout will realize their only hope of regaining power lies in merging their party with Reform UK, and electing Farage as their leader. He has wiped the floor with the establishment parties in the past, and there is no reason why he should not do so again, perhaps as early as 2029.

If so, he must recognize that, just as the US and NATO have provoked Russia in Europe, they have a similar policy toward China in the Far East. They have sought to draw Japan and South Korea into their military partnerships and inflame regional tensions, notably in the South China Sea. Washington has also expanded its presence in the Philippines, another proxy, encouraging Manila to confront China, regardless of the consequences.

If, once elected, Farage and his colleagues can advocate an end to NATO’s provocations and expansionism sufficiently loudly, it may give the warmongers pause for thought. If so, the UK will be even more indebted to him than it already is. He will, once again, have shown himself to be on the right side of history.

The author is a senior counsel and law professor, and was previously the director of public prosecutions of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.