China’s stimulus measures will have a positive spillover effect on Southeast Asia, with the region’s tourism and export sectors expected to benefit from increased Chinese spending, analysts said.
“The pledge of swift and forceful fiscal stimulus by Beijing is welcome news to ASEAN economies,” Erica Tay, an economist at Malaysia-based Maybank Investment Banking Group, told China Daily.
ASEAN refers to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, a 10-member regional grouping.
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On Sept 24, China’s central bank announced a raft of measures aimed at boosting the nation’s economy and spurring consumer spending. The steps included a cut in the reserve requirement ratio of commercial banks, lowering a key interest rate and reducing mortgage rates on existing home loans. The measures led to a spike in global commodity prices and triggered a rally on stock markets.
The Malaysian ringgit, which is one of the best performing Asian currencies this year, hit a three-year high following the Chinese central bank’s announcement. Stock prices of Chinese companies listed on the Singapore bourse surged, along with similar moves on other exchanges.
But for the ASEAN region, which considers China as its biggest trading partner, a key source of investments and tourists and a huge market for export goods, the impact of China’s stimulus package goes beyond a stock price rally.
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“Positive sentiment from the news flow may benefit Chinese consumer spending and tourism demand,” Tay said. She said this will spill over to economies popular with Chinese holidaymakers, such as Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore.
Thailand, ASEAN’s most popular travel destination, was expected welcome over 180,000 Chinese tourists during the Oct 1 to 7 Golden Week holiday. The Tourism Authority of Thailand has estimated that Chinese spending over the weeklong holiday will bring over 5 billion baht ($151 million) in tourism revenues.
Asia Plus Securities expects more Chinese tourists to visit Thailand thanks to the stimulus.
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The Bangkok-based brokerage said in a research note that the Chinese stimulus will be a boon to the Thai export sector as China is Thailand’s second biggest export market.
Josua Pardede, chief economist at the Jakarta-based Permata Bank, said the substantial stimulus from Beijing is targeting not only the domestic supply side but also demand side which can lead to higher multiplier effects on the overall economy.
Pardede said “the strong trade and industrial sector linkages” between Indonesia and China will ensure that the stimulus will support Indonesian export growth and foreign direct investment inflows.
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“If global sentiment regarding China’s economic outlook improves, investors are likely to adopt a risk-on stance towards the Asia-Pacific region, including Indonesia. As a result, there is potential for increased inflow into Indonesia’s portfolio market, which would ultimately help maintain the stability of the rupiah,” he said, referring to the Indonesian currency.
But he also cautioned that Chinese stimulus could be “a double-edged sword”.
“If China’s massive stimulus fails to positively impact its economy, it could trigger a risk-off sentiment in the region,” Pardede said.
Leonardus Jegho in Jakarta contributed to this story.
