Published: 10:06, November 15, 2024 | Updated: 18:30, November 15, 2024
Dollar set for big weekly gain as Powell sends yields up
By Agencies

LONDON/SYDNEY - The US dollar was poised for a big weekly gain on Friday, towering near one-year highs as a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve chief sent short-term Treasury yields higher, leaving equities in the red.

Asian shares looked to end a brutal week on a steadier note.

Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there was no need to rush rate cuts with the economy still growing.

Fed fund futures slumped, with December off 7 ticks and just 71 basis points of rate cuts implied by the end of 2025. A rate cut next month is no longer a high probability event, with just 61 percent priced in, down from 82.5 percent in the prior session.

Goldman Sachs now sees a greater risk that the Fed could slow the pace of easing sooner, possibly as soon as the December or January meetings, while JPMorgan still tips the Fed to cut in December and a slow-down after.

"After the sugar hit of Trump’s election and its subsequent impacts on expectations for company profits, the market’s enthusiasm is being watered-down by greater interest rate uncertainty, especially going into next year," said Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com.

Nasdaq futures fell 0.9 percent while S&P 500 futures eased 0.6 percent.

A fall in healthcare stocks led major European stock indexes lower on Friday, with vaccine markers hit particularly hard after Trump nominated Robert F Kennedy Jr to lead the top US health body.

Overall, the healthcare subsector is underperforming, down 2 percent, compared to a 0.7 percent drop for the broader STOXX 600 which last traded down 0.4 percent.

MSCI's broadest index of shares steadied but was still down 1.34 percent for the week.

Japan's benchmark Nikkei average closed up 0.28 percent at 38,642.91 on Friday, driven by a pullback in the yen, which boosted the outlook for Japanese exporters.

The dollar has gained for five days on the yen, and was up another 0.6 percent to 155.27, the highest level since July.

But yen bears were on guard as Japan's finance ministry kept up its warnings of government action against excessive currency moves. The Bank of Japan also announced Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech on Monday.

On the US policy front, even before Powell spoke, producer price data showed the core gauge topped expectations.

Short-term Treasury yields remained elevated on Friday. The two-year yields held at 4.358 percent, having jumped 6 basis points overnight to close at 4.357 percent.

"Markets are taking on board Powell and Bailey's speeches last night," James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities told Reuters, referring to Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's annual speech at Mansion House.

While both signaled little change in December, Powell hinted the US would cut rates soon while Bailey "lay the ground for more cuts," added Rossiter.

That lifted the dollar across the board. The euro has been hit especially hard this week, as expectations for more aggressive policy easing in Europe further undermined the single currency already trading at one-year lows.

The dollar is set for a big weekly gain of 1.7 percent against its major peers.

The euro was up 0.35 percent on the day at $1.056625, but was set for a weekly loss of 1.4 percent.

Markets are, however, more dovish on the ECB and see a decent 36 percent chance it could step up its easing in December with a half-point move to guard against growth risks. They are also wagering that the ECB will have to cut at each meeting until mid next year.

The lofty dollar has sent gold prices down 4.4 percent this week to $2,565, bringing the monthly loss so far to a sizeable 6.5 percent.

Brent crude futures fell 90 cents to $71.66, on the prospect of US supply rising under Trump's energy policies.