Hong Kong’s manpower shortage is projected to reach 180,000 by 2028, exacerbated by a worsening aging trend, and highlighting the urgent need to import labor.
The population aged 65 and above is expected to increase by 380,000 compared to last year, posing a significant challenge to the labor force, according to the 2023 Manpower Projection Report that was released on Thursday.
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun Yuk-han revealed that the manpower supply in Hong Kong in 2023 was 3.5 million, while the manpower demand reached 3.55 million, resulting in an overall manpower shortfall of 50,000 people.
By 2028, the manpower supply is projected to be 3.56 million, along with a 3.75 million people manpower demand, showing an overall shortfall of 180,000 people.
The report included occupations in 17 industries, and 10 of them, such as international trade, manufacturing, city operations, accommodation and catering, will all face a manpower shortfall of over 10,000 people by 2028.
The 17 selected industries include the eight key areas for the development of Hong Kong as outlined in the National 14th Five-Year Plan, and nine significant sectors supporting local services and city operations.
Together, these industries cover over 2.8 million workers, or 80 percent of Hong Kong’s workforce and contribute more than 70 percent of the city’s Gross Domestic Product.
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Sun said that skilled workers, including electrical and mechanical facilities maintenance technicians and construction workers, will be the group facing the most severe manpower shortage, amounting to 60,000 to 65,000 workers.
Describing aging as the biggest challenge, Sun said that over the next five years, 500,000 employees will reach the age of 60, including 104,000 highly skilled technicians and 102,000 non-technical staff.
By 2028, the population aged 65 and above will have grown by 380,000, representing 28 percent of the total population.
Sun noted that the median age of skilled workers has already reached 50, with 40 percent over 55 and one-quarter over 60. The median age of non-skilled workers has already reached 53, and ageing will become more serious in five years’ time, he said.
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To address the situation, Sun vowed to continue to import an appropriate amount of overseas talent and labor.
He added that the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government will launch more training programs with the aim of attracting more young people to enter the relevant industries, as well as applying technologies such as AI and automation to combat the workforce shortage.
The report has already considered the reduction in manpower requirements due to the development of digitalization and artificial intelligence. According to the report, the most useful knowledge for employees in the labor market of 2028 includes basic digital knowledge, ESG principles, cultural awareness, and understanding of national and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area development strategies.
The government has been conducting periodic manpower projection exercises to assess Hong Kong’s future manpower supply and requirement trends at a macro level.
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With 2023 as the base year, the latest round of projection indicates the manpower situation five years ahead.
The government will further adjust the report next year, and update relevant survey figures in 2026, Sun added.
