Published: 11:19, November 14, 2024 | Updated: 17:09, November 14, 2024
Asia shares wobble; long-end US bond yields rise with dollar
By Agencies

SINGAPORE - Asian shares were lower on Thursday, while longer-dated US bond yields rose alongside the dollar as investors assessed the monetary policy and inflation outlook in the world's largest economy.

Bitcoin steadied above $90,000 after having surpassed that level in the previous session, turbocharged by Donald Trump's return to the White House and the view that his administration will be a boon for cryptocurrencies.

The world's largest cryptocurrency last traded 1.7 percent higher at $90,151, having already soared more than 30 percent on a two-week rolling basis.

In the broader market, traders responded to a US inflation print that was in line with expectations by ramping up bets of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, though the monetary policy outlook for 2025 and beyond was clouded by Trump's return to office.

Trump's plan for lower taxes and higher tariffs is expected to stoke inflation and reduce the Fed's scope to ease interest rates.

Edison Research also projected on Wednesday that the Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when the President-elect takes office in January, which would enable him to pursue his agenda largely unhindered.

That uncertainty was reflected in longer-dated US bond yields, which pushed higher in Asia trade on Thursday.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.483 percent, according to LSEG data, its highest since July 1.

The 30-year yield hovered near a five-month peak and last traded 2.6 basis points higher at 4.6624 percent.

"Speculations about what Trump might do on the domestic policy and trade front are unlikely to be featured in the Fed's December projections. This will change as the first policies are being rolled out," said Boris Kovacevic, global macro strategist at Convera.

"The actual effect of tariff increases and tax cuts will mostly be felt after 2025 as both the implementation and transmission to the real economy take time. This will give the Fed some time to change its reaction function accordingly."

On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, eased slightly to 4.3088 percent, based on LSEG data.

Markets are now pricing in an 83 percent chance of a 25bp rate cut from the Fed next month, up from about 59 percent a day ago. However, expectations of Fed cuts next year following Trump's election victory last week have since been pared back.

The dollar meanwhile rode longer-dated Treasury yields higher on Thursday, ignoring the rising bets of a Fed cut in December which would typically be negative for the currency.

The greenback pushed the euro to a one-year low of $1.0534 and broke above the 156 yen level in the Asian session.

The dollar index peaked at a one-year high of 106.77.

The Australian dollar fell 0.33 percent to $0.6464, further pressured by a downside surprise on domestic employment.