Contrary to earlier predictions of a nail-biting contest, Donald Trump has managed a stunning comeback, securing 295 electoral votes against Harris’ 226, well exceeding the 270-vote threshold, and will become the 47th president of the United States in January. He also won some 4.7 million more popular votes than Harris, not to mention a comfortable majority for the Republican Party in both the House and the Senate.

However, unlike Trump’s first presidency, this time is very different, not only for the US’ domestic politics but for the rest of the world, including the Chinese mainland and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Domestically, US society has never been so divided and divisive. A significant proportion of Trump supporters are non-college-educated, rural, male-dominant workers who despair of their lives not getting any better under the Biden Administration. Improvements in the stock market and broad economic outlook are seen only to benefit the national elite. They have firmly bought into Trump’s rhetoric, blaming their situation on outsourced production, Chinese and other foreign imports, and illegal immigrants competing for jobs and housing.

Another powerful segment of Trump supporters is dead against the Democratic Party’s liberal agenda of “diversity, equity, and inclusion”, which is seen to run counter to traditional evangelical aversion to same-sex marriage and abortion.

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These popular frustrations explain why Trump chose JD Vance — a hillbilly-made-good from a broken family in Ohio — as his running mate to reinforce his mantra of “Make America Great Again”.

Ingrained by his upbringing and business career, Trump by nature focuses on transactional deals, to which any foreign alliance, however long-term, risks being held hostage (except perhaps the pro-Israel Jewish lobby, which remains part and parcel of his family, including his Jewish son-in-law).

Quite a substantial proportion of America’s big money has been put on Trump, including tech giants like Elon Musk and energy conglomerates, betting on his protectionist and pro-fossil fuel policies.

Trump has made his top priorities crystal clear.

Domestically, he will launch a witch-hunt and deportation campaign against “illegal immigrants”, corralling illegals and their family members, however long-term and whatever their age.

He has already stacked the Supreme Court with pro-Republican judges for life. As revealed by the Trump-inspired, albeit later disowned, “Project 2025”, he is set to turn the whole federal bureaucracy into his “fiefdom”, vetting and removing “disloyal” civil servants, whatever their merits. Adding to comfortable Republican majorities in both the House and the Senate and a faithful cabinet, Trump will be unrestrained like an “American emperor” for the next four years.  

Externally, on trade, Trump has vowed to impose massive tariffs on all imported goods, including more than 60 percent tariffs on China’s exports. He even touted tariffs as a good substitute for income tax. Never mind whether most of the jobs represented by imports are returning to the US, due to its prohibitively higher production costs, despite tax cuts and subsidies.

On international relations, as outlined in my Oct 26 think-piece in Rome-based World Geostrategic Insights, Ukraine’s proxy war of attrition has dragged on long enough for a war-wary US and its European allies. Trump may also embrace the strategic realist notion that the US should focus on confronting China as its “primary threat”. Trump has claimed that he will end the war “in a day”. This could take the form of a negotiated Korean War-style armistice, freezing the situation on the ground without formal sovereignty concessions.

If a diminished yet nuclear-armed Russia survives the Ukraine war with territorial gains, whatever the terminology, it is likely to remain an existential menace for the rest of Europe. Palpably nervous about Trump’s return to the White House, Europe is likely to adopt a less hostile, hedging relationship with China.

In Gaza, thousands of civilians, including many women and children, continue to be killed or maimed as unavoidable collateral damage, driven by the unrestrained Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu, who is now spreading the conflict to Syria and Iran, confident in the Jewish lobby’s cast-iron grip on the US’ politics.  

Appalled by the catastrophic humanitarian crisis and the US’ double standards, three-quarters of United Nations member states now recognize Palestine as a state, including Western countries such as Norway, Ireland and Spain. A “two-state solution” for lasting peace is gaining traction, potentially changing the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape, following the historic Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement brokered by China.

With pro-Israel leanings, Trump is likely to throw a spanner in the works. According to a Nov 1 report on National Public Radio, an influential public broadcasting organization based in Washington DC, Trump may well back Israel’s annexation of its occupied West Bank by way of punishment for Hamas’ initial attack.

Trump’s America-First exceptionalism, disrespect for lesser nations, double standards, criminal convictions and relative lack of moral fiber are likely to continue to erode the US’ leadership in promoting democracy and a “liberal international order”.

Albeit very different from a Cold War bloc, a relative solidarity is rising among diverse nations in the Global South with their long history of Western oppression or marginalization, and recent alarm with long-armed US dollar weaponization. With an “unpredictable” and “unprincipled” Trump presidency, China’s alternative of a more inclusive and cooperative world order with “fairness, justice, openness and inclusiveness” focusing on “peace and development” is likely to gain more traction. Witness President Xi Jinping’s speech at the recent BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia.  

As for Taiwan, a Trump White House could mean that the island is “potentially toast”, according to John Bolton, former national security adviser during Trump’s first Presidency. Trump said it was “stupid” for the US to protect Taiwan for free and blamed the island for dominating the semiconductor business. He is likely to exert more pressure on Taiwan to prevent it from dragging Washington into a hot war with Beijing.

READ MORE: Xi congratulates Trump on his election as US president

Over a million Taiwan people are already living and working on the mainland. More tourists from both sides are visiting across the Strait. More film directors, singers, actors and actresses from Taiwan are appearing in mainland movies and TV series. The increasing lure of the vast mainland market and acceptance of its not-so-different lifestyle, coupled with Trump’s indifferent attitude toward Taiwan, are likely to speed up the momentum toward peaceful reunification.

As for Hong Kong, the city’s role as an international trade, services and finance center is likely to be affected by Trump’s massive tariffs against Chinese goods. Trump has also vowed to secure the release from prison of ex-Hong Kong tycoon Jimmy Lai Chee-ying, a prominent National Security Law offender.

All told, Trump’s historic comeback is likely to usher in stormy upheavals not only in the US but also in regional and global dynamics. China, and the HKSAR, would be well advised to brace for major shocks.

The author is an international independent China strategist, and was previously the director-general of social welfare and Hong Kong’s official chief representative for the United Kingdom, Eastern Europe, Russia, Norway, and Switzerland.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.