From May 5-10, President Xi Jinping is paying state visits to France, Serbia and Hungary, countries that are important to China in different respects. This is Xi’s first visit to Europe in five years. There is no doubt that Xi’s visit has enormous strategic and symbolic significance. From a strategic perspective, Xi’s trip and its messages to Europe will help alleviate conflicts and misunderstandings between China and Europe and strengthen cooperation in many fields. 

From a symbolic standpoint, 2024 marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and France, the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Hungary, and the 25th anniversary of the US bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, in what was then Yugoslavia. Xi’s trip also highlights the inseparable relationship between China and Europe, the need to strengthen mutual trust and cooperation, and the imperative to prevent a new Cold War. Third-party forces should not be allowed to drive a wedge in their relations.

It is unsurprising that some anti-China politicians and experts in the United States and Europe are uneasy about Xi’s visit, viewing it from a biased perspective. On the one hand, they are worried that with the joint promotion of Germany and France, Sino-European relations will improve, while Europe’s dependence on the US will decrease. On the other hand, they believe Xi’s trip suggests that China is urgently trying to reduce Europe’s hostility toward China and prevent Europe and the US from joining forces to further contain China. By this logic, China now needs Europe more than the reverse, and China is weak and passive in Sino-EU relations. Some of them even believe Xi’s trip aims to divide Europe and the US. A Financial Times columnist, Gideon Rachman, commented cynically, “The three stops chosen by China’s leader make perfect sense viewed from Beijing. For strategic and economic reasons, China badly wants to disrupt the unity of both NATO and the EU. Each of the three countries that Xi is visiting is seen as a potential lever to prise open the cracks in the West.”

To a certain extent, Europe has doubts and concerns about China. While the EU is actively establishing close economic and trade ties with China, it worries that China’s rise poses a “threat” to Europe’s security and economy. For this reason, starting in 2019, the EU defined China simultaneously as a partner for cooperation, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival. Europe is apprehensive and frightened about the impact of China’s large-scale export of cheap and high-quality industrial products, especially electric vehicles and solar panels, on Europe’s manufacturing industry, accusing China of exporting “excess production capacity”. Europe also believes that its companies and products, notably cognac and cosmetics, do not enjoy a level playing field in China. More importantly, to prevent Europe and China from getting too close, the US has long tried to drive a wedge between Europe and China. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe has become more dependent on the US for security, and Europe has encountered more obstruction from the US in cooperating with China. Europe’s culture and values are different from China’s, and there are differences on the issues of democracy and human rights, which bring certain troubles to China-EU relations. However, since Europe does not have the ambition to seek global hegemony, its intention to export Western beliefs to China is much weaker than that of the US, and it has no strong incentive to contain China’s rise, Europe can still develop mutually beneficial relations with China more rationally and pragmatically. For a long time, the economic and trade exchanges between China and Europe have been characterized by mutual benefits, win-win results and complementary advantages. Occasionally, they were able to work together to promote regional peace. Although they have contradictions and differences, China and Europe share many compatible interests.

From this perspective, Xi’s visits to France, Serbia and Hungary are not a move of China to “win back Europe” but instead an opportunity to break down obstacles, resolve difficulties, and strengthen cooperation for two parties that need each other. China certainly does not want Europe to collaborate with the US to contain China’s rise, impose unfair and unreasonable restrictions on Chinese companies in Europe, place heavy tariffs on China’s industrial products, particularly electric vehicles, steel and solar panels, and use “national security” and other pretexts to restrict trade and investment. From a strategic perspective, China hopes to develop broader and deeper cooperation with Europe on the economy, trade, culture, science and technology, investment, infrastructure, climate, and security. It hopes that more European countries will join the Belt and Road Initiative. China also would like to jointly explore the construction of a new international order with Europe at a time when the “liberal international order” led by the US is collapsing.

Meanwhile, Europe also has strong incentives to enhance cooperation with China in the current turbulent international political and economic situation. On the economic front, the Russia-Ukraine war has dealt a heavy blow to the European economy. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, European countries had to turn to the US for security. Together with the US, they imposed tough economic sanctions on Russia, significantly reducing their dependence on Russian energy. As a result, Europe’s economy suffered tremendously. The US took advantage of the dire energy shortage in Europe by selling liquid natural gas at high prices. It used subsidies to entice European companies to invest in the US. At the same time, it introduced various protectionist measures to bar European products from being exported to the US. Germany, which has always been the locomotive of European economic development, has suffered huge financial losses. In 2023, Germany’s economy shrank 0.3 percent, with the 2024 growth projected to expand a measly 0.2 percent.

In the current turbulent international environment, President Xi, through his visits to three European countries, has expounded China’s positions and propositions on significant political, economic and security issues, as well as peace in Europe and the Middle East, emphasizing that Europe and China need each other and therefore should enhance strategic trust and cooperation on multiple fronts

European countries in severe economic difficulties naturally hope to strengthen economic and trade ties with China to promote economic growth and enhance competitiveness. For this reason, European leaders unanimously oppose “decoupling” from China. Instead, they use the milder term “de-risking” to describe the economic and trade relations between Europe and China, wherein “friction and cooperation” are in odd coexistence. Germany is particularly proactive in this regard. As China and Germany celebrated the 50th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations in 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz clarified that decoupling from China would be wrong. In April, Scholz even led a significant economic and trade delegation to visit China, seeking to strengthen cooperation with China in various fields. James Crabtree, a columnist for Foreign Policy, reacted sarcastically, “German Chancellor Olaf Scholz just wrapped up a China trip that was far more conciliatory in both tone and substance — an approach that leaves Germany, and by extension Europe, at risk of looking alarmingly naive in the face of the economic and security challenges posed by China.” He lamented that “Scholz’s trip was a gift to Beijing’s long-held approach of seeking to divide Europeans among themselves — and from the United States.”

It is indisputable that despite all kinds of concerns, discontent and hesitation, European countries strive to cooperate more economically and in trade with China for their own interests. In the sluggish global economy, shrinking international trade, rampant market fragmentation, rising protectionism, and deglobalization, European countries naturally find China an indispensable economic partner.

At the political level, both the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts pose severe threats to Europe’s security, especially the former. Russia’s advantages in the Russia-Ukraine war are becoming increasingly apparent. For European leaders, as the eventual “victor” of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia’s “threat” to Europe would increase. Europe and the US are increasingly uninterested in an unwinnable war that requires endless resources. Recently, there have been loud calls for Ukraine to end the war with “land for peace”. Europeans are increasingly befuddled about the US’ stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, and a sense of possible betrayal is palpable. Some believe the US will not let the war end, to further weaken Russia, causing Europe to pay a heavier political, economic and security price. Some people portend that the US will soon unilaterally withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine war, especially if Donald Trump is reelected president of the US. In any case, Europe will continue to be trapped in the dilemma and unable to extricate itself. Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed sending NATO troops to defend Ukraine, which the US and other European countries severely criticized. In this regard, Macron appeared to warn the US not to end support for Ukraine unilaterally if Washington wants to maintain its primacy in NATO. Hence, ending the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible has become the “consensus” of European countries. In seeking to restore peace in Europe, European leaders believe China can and should play an active and critical role. They also hope that China can play a mediating role between Russia and Ukraine, and between Europe and Russia. Moreover, they want to prevent “too close” strategic cooperation between China and Russia to the detriment of Europe.

From a higher strategic level, European political elites increasingly believe that the international landscape has undergone irreversible transformations, that US hegemony and the US-led global order are no longer sustainable, and that the current international political and economic landscape is chaotic and disorderly. Josep Borrell, high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, admitted that the “era of Western dominance has decisively ended”. He warned that the EU must not divide the world into “the West against the Rest”, as “many in the ‘Global South’ accuse us of ‘double standards’.”

The specter of international disorder particularly disturbs Macron. In an interview with The Economist on May 2, Macron’s analysis of the threats encircling Europe is resolutely bleak. In his mind, “at stake is the survival of Europe as a safe place, a guarantor of prosperity and the liberal democratic order.” “To shore up Europe in the longer run, Mr Macron is hatching ideas for a new binding European security ‘framework’.” “In his telling, America will not always have Europe’s back. The continent has no choice: ‘We have to get ready to protect ourselves.’” “Underlying this analysis is the observation that nobody else plays by the rules anymore. The old order has been broken. Nothing has yet replaced it.”

The views of Borrell and Macron are standard among European political elites, but few are willing to express them openly. From their perspective, the US-led international order is in inevitable collapse. If Trump retakes the presidential office, American nationalism, isolationism and unilateralism will significantly impact world peace and development. Europe’s situation will be even worse. Therefore, all countries worldwide, especially the great powers, must collaborate to build a new international order that all parties can support. The US obviously will not agree to replace the international order it currently dominates with a new one. If Europe continues to follow the US’ lead, it will suffer enormously and lose the opportunity to shape a new international order. Therefore, to eliminate the constraints of the US and safeguard Europe’s vital interests, striving for “strategic autonomy” and seizing the “strategic initiative” are the only ways to defend Europe’s security and interests. Macron has repeatedly mentioned that Europe must achieve “strategic autonomy”, to the ire of the US. In conceiving and building a new international order, China as a great power must be present. Europe will increasingly be interested in dialogue with China on this crucial issue. France has never been willing to be subservient to the US, and actively playing a “bridge”, “balance”, or “buffer” role between Europe and China and the US to a certain extent will help enhance France’s international status and its influence in global affairs.

In the current turbulent international environment, President Xi, through his visits to three European countries, has expounded China’s positions and propositions on significant political, economic and security issues, as well as peace in Europe and the Middle East, emphasizing that Europe and China need each other and therefore should enhance strategic trust and cooperation on multiple fronts. Xi’s trip has achieved many concrete results in strengthening bilateral cooperation in the economy, trade, finance, science and technology, security, culture, and the restoration of peace in the Middle East, laying a solid foundation for the continuous advancement of the Sino-Europe strategic partnership.

The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.